Arguments

Barry. I used to think that Reverend Jim was wasting his time with his Pray for Peace campaign, but it's really begun to foster a sense of community in our parish.
Julius. A sense of community is a good thing, but we must set it against the needs of people in other countries. Since Reverend Jim started his Pray-For-Peace campaign, four more wars have started. We must shut down this Pray-For-Peace campaign before even more countries are dragged into war!
 
Standardization

Barry          1. Reverend Jim started a Pray for Peace campaign.
                   2. Reverend Jim's parish subsequently gained a real sense of community.
                  (3. A sense of community is a good thing)                                                
                  C. Reverend Jim's Pray for Peace campaign is a good thing.        

Julius         1. Reverend Jim started a Pray for Peace campaign.
                   2. Subsequently, four more wars have started.
                   (3. War is bad.)                                                                                            
                   C. Reverend Jim's Pray for Peace campaign is a bad thing.       

Contextualization

To determine the burden of proof here we should ask what our background knowledge says about what prayer campaigns can and cannot cause. To me, it seems more reasonable to think that a bunch of people praying together will develop a sense of connection to each other. I don't see how prayer can cause war, so Julius bears the burden of proof. 

Analysis

Neither argument addresses either the premises or the logic of the other, so Barry gives a direct argument and Julius also gives a direct argument.

Evaluation


Barry         Causal Argument.                                                   Julius  Causal Argument.
                 Purported Cause: Pray for Peace campaign.                      Purported Cause: Pray for Peace campaign.
                 Purported Effect: sense of community                                Purported Effect: four wars
                 Correlation: campaign, then sense of community                   Correlation: campaign, then wars

Evaluation: Julius commits the false cause fallacy, but only because he is basing his causal claim on one correlation. If it was the case that all wars were preceded by prayers for peace, and that prayers for peace were always followed by war, and there was no observable common cause, then that would establish that prayers for peace cause wars. Julius's problem is that he jumps to a conclusion based on a very weak correlation.

Fist of Death

If we consider only the facts given in the discussion between Barry and Julius, it would seem that Reverend Jim is doing a good thing with his Pray for Peace campaign. As Barry points out, it fosters a sense of community in their parish, which is presumably a good thing. Julius argues against this on the grounds that the Pray for Peace campaign causes wars. His argument is that four more wars have started since Reverend Jim's campaign started, so therefore the campaign caused those wars. In order for Julius to sustain a causal connection between the campaign and the wars he would have to show that more wars happened than we should rationally expect, given the current state of the world. Since Julius does not even begin to show anything like that, his argument fails.

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