Snortblaster. Iraq was a lot like Afghanistan was before Jimmy Carter's boy Zbigniew Brzezinski started arming Islamic terrorists there. Like Afghanistan before Brzezinski, it had a secular government over a Muslim people, and was far more socially progressive than any Islamic Republic. Also like Afghanistan was, it was an independent nation that is much more closely tied Moscow that it was with the United States. Just as destabilizing Afghanistan led to a horrific and unpredictable series of human disasters (Russian invasion, guerilla war, and eventually the Taliban) in that region, destabilizing Iraq is likely to lead to an unpredictable series of horrific human disasters in that region.
Jolie. That's like saying that Colombia is exactly the same as Cuba because they both speak spanish, or that Argentina is like Austria because they're both Catholic countries! You have to understand that all Muslim countries are different from each other, and so statements made about one Muslim country cannot apply to all other Muslim countries. Once you understand the differences between various Muslim countries you'll realize that the comparison between Iraq and Afganistan gives us no reason to think that destabilizing Iraq will have the consequences you say it will.
Based on the information presented above, it's possible that destabilizing Iraq will lead to horrific human disasters, but it's not necessarily likely. Jolie's argument is much worse than Snortblaster's, but that doesn't mean that Snortblaster's argument is good enough. Jolie says that Snortblaster's argument is like saying that two countries will behave very much the same way in the same circumstances just so long as they are similar in some small way. Jolie points out that Muslim countries are all different from each other, but ignores the fact that Snortblaster goes deeper into the similarities between the two countries than just saying that they're Muslim, so Jolie's argument commits the Straw Man fallacy. However, while Snortblaster discusses some deeper similarities between the two countries, he doesn't really talk about anything that would be likely to cause horrible human disasters. Whatever it was that made Afghanistan go all to hell after Carter and Brzezinski started in on it doesn't seem to be mentioned in Snortblaster's argument, so we don't know whether it's present in Iraq or not. This means that Snortblaster's argument doesn't work.
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